The Guardian view on the Iranian nu

The Guardian view on the Iranian nuclear agreement: diplomacy shows its worth
After news emerged from Lausanne that an agreement had been reached over Iran’s nuclear programme, there were bound to be emphatic words. Both Tehran and Washington had much at stake in this diplomatic marathon, so both needed headlines. Barack Obama, who is scrambling around for accomplishments to improve his decidedly mixed foreign policy legacy, was quick to hail a “historic” achievement. Iran’s concern is to loosen the sanctions gnawing at its economy, while still preserving the essential elements of a nuclear programme, for reasons of national prestige and supposed self-sufficiency. Its foreign minister duly declared a “decisive step”. The fierce condemnation from the Netanyahu government, as well as from the right on Capitol Hill, where some Republicans instantly compared Obama to Chamberlain in Munich, added to the sense that events of shattering importance were unfolding. But, in truth, these were predictable words that were always going to be said.

The hopes, especially on the streets of Tehran, that a chaotic Middle East could now be transformed by the breakthrough is, in fact, premature. It is, of course, to be welcomed if the 12 years of diplomatic efforts that have followed the uncovering of Iran’s secret nuclear programme are now bearing fruit. But the merits of Thursday’s agreement must be judged on the content, not the atmospherics. The Lausanne text is a preliminary framework. Many devilish details are left to a more comprehensive final accord, due before the end of June. Iranian anger about a US factsheet, which wrongly stated that EU sanctions were merely being suspended, underlined that – as Mr Obama conceded – a lot remains to be done. And yet, on the big issues, some big compromises have been made at Lausanne.

So, what is this deal? Does it forever block Iran from fabricating an atomic weapon? The answer has to be no. It’s not that the constraints are negligeable: the US factsheet says, for example, that the stockpile of enriched uranium will be capped at 300kg. It is rather that they are time-limited to 10 or 15 years, which means that there could be a move towards more enrichment later. Iran will equally be able to pursue, albeit with some restrictions, R&D on sophisticated centrifuges, a potential route for returning to its original goal of producing large stocks of nuclear material somewhere down the road. There are stronger reassurances on weaponisation, because – as a condition of getting sanctions relief – Iran has to provide the International Atomic Energy Authority with access to sites and people of interest. All told, it kicks the can down the road. It makes it almost impossible for Iran to go for a bomb in the next decade – which allows Mr Obama to keep his promise of no-nuclear-Iran-on-my-watch – but the guarantees are less watertight for the future.

The regional effect of the deal is potentially positive, but uncertain. Washington is making efforts here, announcing it will convene a Gulf state summit at Camp David. Rightly so. Sunni anxiety about an Iranian deal has already fuelled the sort of tensions seen in Yemen. The deal in itself will hardly soothe Sunni nerves, since it cools the hostility between the US and the chief Shia power. The effect on the Syrian conflict will be an important test. But whatever the disruption, the upside is, of course, that more talks are better than no talks at all.

As for the effect on Iran itself, much depends on how the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, manages the popularity that the deal will bring the Iranian president, Hassan Rouhani. Mr Khamenei gave his blessing after Friday prayers, but the regime – which violently crushed a peaceful pro-democracy movement in 2009 – will not want the enthusiasm over the American detente to get out of hand. Ever since 1979-80, the Iranian theocracy has rested on hostility to the west.

There is no denying there has been a breakthrough, even if it doesn’t, as Mr Obama claims, “cut off every path” to an Iranian bomb. That is strictly true only for 10 years or so: a long delay by western political standards, perhaps, but not by the standards of Iran’s stubborn strategic goals. Lausanne represents progress. But there is still more to do before we can be confident that history will judge it as delivering real security – for the Middle East and the world as a whole.

Результаты (русский) 3:

Guardian мнение об иранской ядерной соглашения: дипломатия показывает свою ценность
после новости из Лозанны, было достигнуто соглашение по поводу иранской ядерной программы, были обязаны быть настойчивыми слова. Как Тегеран и Вашингтон, на карту поставлено очень многое в этом дипломатический марафон, так как необходимые заголовки. Бараком Обамой,