The next round of globalization is

The next round of globalization is under way. Who will the big winners be?
The handwriting is on the wall; writes an IT specialist at the Bank of America. Until recently the bank needed talent so badly it had to outbid rivals. But last fall, his entire 15-engineer tearn was told their jobs were redundant. Bank of America has already slashed 3,700 of its 25,000 technical and back-office jobs and more are to follow.
Corporate downsizings are nothing new. These layoffs, thougharen't happening because demand has dried up; one-third of thoses jobs are headed to India, where work that costs $100 an hour in the US gets done for $20. At lnfosys Technologies Ltd. in Bangalore, India, 250 engineers are developing Computer applications for Bank of America. About 1,600km north, at Wipro Spectramind Ltd. 2,500 young college-educated men and women are checking accident reports for an insurance company and providing help-desk support for a big internet service provider — all at a cost up to 60% lower than in the USA.
It's globalization's next phase — and one of the biggest trends reshaping the global economy. The first phase started two decades ago with the transfer of manufacturing jobs to economically developing countries. After that, simple service work, like processing credit card receipts, and digital labor, like writing software code, began fleeing high-cost countries.
Now, all kinds of knowledge work can be done almost anywhere. The driving forces are digitization, the Internet, and high-speed data networks that circle the globe. By mining databases over the Internet, offshore staff can check individual credit records, analyse corporate financial information, and search through oceans of economic statistics.
The impact of offshore hiring is hard to measure, since so far a tiny portion of US white-collar work has jumped overseas. Indeed, a case can be made that the US will see a net gain from this shift. In the 1990s, the USA had to import hundreds of thousands of immigrants to ease engineering shortages. Now, by sending routine service and engineering tasks to nations with a surplus of educated workers, the US labor force and capital can be redeployed to higher-value industries.
Globalization should also keep service prices in check, just as it did when manufacturing went offshore. Companies will be able to reduce overheads and improve efficiency. 'Our comparative advantage may shift to other fields,' says economist Robert Lipsey, 'and if productivity is high, then the US will maintain a high standard of living. By encouraging economic development in nations such as India, meanwhile, US companies will have expanded foreign markets for their goods and services.
Outsourcing experts say the big job migration has only just begun. Frances Karamouzis, research director at Gartner Inc., expects 40% of the USA's top 1.000 companies to have an overseas pilot project under way within two years. The really big offshore push won't be until 2010 or so, she predicts. But if big layoffs result at home, corporations and the US government will face a backlash. Some states are already pushing for legislation to stop public jobs from being transfered overseas and now the unions are moving into the fight to keep jobs at home.
The truth is, the rise of the global knowledge industry is so recent that most economists haven't begun to understand the implications. For developing nations, the big beneficiaries will be those offering the speediest and cheapest telecom links, investor-friendly policies, and ample college graduates. In the West, it's far less clear who will be the big winners and losers. But well soon find out.

Результаты (африкаанс) 1:

Die volgende ronde van globalisering is aan die gang. Wie sal die groot wenners wees?
Die skrif is aan die muur, skryf 'n IT-spesialis by die Bank van Amerika. Tot onlangs was die bank nodig talent so erg dit moes mededingers te wen. Maar verlede val, sy hele 15-ingenieur tearn gesê hul werk was oorbodig. Bank van Amerika het reeds gesny 3700 van sy 25.000 tegniese en back-office werk en meer is om te volg.
Corporate inkrimpingen is niks nuuts nie. Hierdie losgelaat, thougharen't gebeur omdat die vraag het opgedroog, een derde van thoses werkgeleenthede gelei na Indië, waar die werk wat kos $ 100 'n uur in die VSA gedoen word vir $ 20. Op lnfosys Technologies Ltd in Bangalore, Indië, is 250 ingenieurs ontwikkel Computer aansoeke vir die Bank van Amerika. Oor 1,600km noorde, op Wipro Spectramind Ltd 2500 jong kollege-opleiding mans en vroue monitor ongeluk verslae vir 'n versekeringsmaatskappy en die verskaffing van hulp-lessenaar ondersteuning vir 'n groot internet diensverskaffer - alles teen 'n koste tot 60% laer as in . die VSA
Dit is globalisering se volgende fase - en een van die grootste tendense die hervorming van die globale ekonomie. Die eerste fase begin twee dekades gelede met die oordrag van vervaardiging bane om ekonomies ontwikkelende lande. Daarna, eenvoudige diens werk, soos die verwerking kredietkaart kwitansies, en digitale arbeid, soos die skryf van sagteware-kode, begin vlug hoë koste lande.
Nou, alle vorme van kennis werk kan byna oral gedoen. Die dryfkragte is digitalisering, die Internet, en 'n hoë-spoed data netwerke wat die wêreld sirkel. Deur mynbou databasisse oor die internet, kan buitelandse personeel individuele krediet rekords nagaan, korporatiewe finansiële inligting te analiseer, en soek deur oseane van ekonomiese statistiek.
Die impak van buitelandse huur is moeilik om te meet, aangesien so ver 'n klein gedeelte van die VSA witboordjie-werk het oorsese gespring. Inderdaad, kan 'n saak gemaak dat die VSA 'n netto wins van hierdie verskuiwing sal sien. In die 1990's het die VSA in te voer honderde duisende immigrante ingenieurswese tekorte te verlig. Nou, deur die stuur van roetine diens en ingenieurswese take nasies met 'n surplus van opgeleide werkers, die VSA arbeidsmag en kapitaal herontplooi kan word om 'n hoër-waarde bedrywe.
Globalisering moet ook diens pryse in toom te hou, net soos dit gedoen het toe vervaardiging het in die buiteland . Maatskappye sal in staat wees om oorhoofse koste te verminder en te verbeter doeltreffendheid. 'Ons vergelykende voordeel kan verskuif na ander gebiede, "sê ekonoom Robert Lipsey," en as produktiwiteit hoog is, dan is die VSA sal 'n hoë standaard van die lewe in stand te hou. Deur die bevordering van ekonomiese ontwikkeling in lande soos Indië, intussen, Amerikaanse maatskappye sal het buitelandse markte uitgebrei vir hul goedere en dienste.
Uitkontraktering kenners sê die groot werk migrasie het net begin. Frances Karamouzis, navorsing direkteur by Gartner Inc., verwag 40% van die VSA se top 1,000 maatskappye om 'n oorsese loodsprojek gang het binne twee jaar. Die werklik groot buitelandse druk sal nie tot 2010 of so, voorspel sy. Maar as 'n groot losgelaat lei by die huis, korporasies en die Amerikaanse regering sal 'n teenreaksie die gesig staar. Sommige state is reeds besig om vir wetgewing om openbare poste te verhoed dat oorsese oorgedra en nou die vakbonde beweeg in die stryd om werk by die huis te hou.
Die waarheid is, die opkoms van die globale kennis-industrie is so dat die meeste onlangse ekonome nie begin om die implikasies te verstaan. Vir die ontwikkeling van die nasies, sal die groot begunstigdes diegene wees wat die speediest en goedkoopste Telecom skakels, belegger-vriendelike beleid, en 'n ruim kollege gegradueerdes. In die Weste, is dit veel minder duidelik wat sal wees die groot wenners en verloorders. Maar goed gou uitvind.