Результаты (
русский) 1:
[копия]Скопировано!
," co-lead author Dr Susan Soloman told delegates in Paris.Strong languageThe report, produced by a team tasked with assessing the science of climate change, was intended to be the definitive summary of climatic shifts facing the world in the coming years.IPCC PROJECTIONSProbable temperature rise between 1.8C and 4CPossible temperature rise between 1.1C and 6.4CSea level most likely to rise by 28-43cmArctic summer sea ice disappears in second half of centuryIncrease in heatwaves very likelyIncrease in tropical storm intensity likelyIPCC report: World reactionIPCC report: UK reactionThe agency said that it would use stronger language to assess humanity's influence on climatic change than it had previously done.In 2001, it said that it was "likely" that human activities lay behind the trends observed at various parts of the planet; "likely" in IPCC terminology means between 66% and 90% probability.Now, the panel concluded that it was at least 90% certain that human emissions of greenhouse gases rather than natural variations are warming the planet's surface.They projected that temperatures would probably rise by between 1.8C and 4C, though increases as small as 1.1C (2F) or as large as 6.4C (11.5F) were possible.In 2001, using different methodology, the numbers were 1.4 (2.5F) and 5.8C (10.4F).How computers model climateOn sea level, there has been a more fundamental debate.Computer models of climate generally include water coming into the oceans as ice caps and glaciers melt. But the potentially much larger contribution of "accelerated melting", where the disintegration of ice shelves and lubrication of glaciers by meltwater speeds up the flow of ice into the oceans, is much harder to model.So the IPCC had to decide whether to exclude this from its calculations, or to estimate the effect of a process which scientists do not understand well but which could have a big impact.They used the former, more conservative approach, projecting an average rise in sea levels globally of between 28 and 43cm. The 2001 report cited a range of nine to 88cm.As for climate change influencing the intensity of tropical storms in some areas of the world, the IPCC concluded that it was likely - meaning a greater probability than 66% - that rising temperatures were a factor.'Unequivocal'Climate change: In graphicsDr Rajendra Pachauri, the IPCC chairman, said: "It is extremely encouraging in that the science has moved on from what was possible in the Third Assessment Report."If you see the extent to which human activities are influencing the climate system, the options for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions appear in a different light, because you can see what the costs of inaction are," he told delegates in Paris.Achim Steiner, executive director of the United Nations Environment Programme (Unep), said the findings marked a historical landmark in the debate about whether humans were affecting the state of the atmosphere.READ THE FINDINGSIPCC Summary [2.2MB]Most computers will open this document automatically, but you may need Adobe ReaderDownload the reader here"It is an unequivocal series of evidence [showing that] fossil fuel burning and land use change are affecting the climate on our planet."He added: "If you are an African child born in 2007, by the time you are 50 years old you may be faced with disease and new levels of drought."He said that he hoped the IPCC report would galvanise national governments into action.At varianceBut a study published on the eve of the IPCC report suggested that the international body's previous reports may have actually been too conservative.HAVE YOUR SAY Another day, another climate-change story. All of this leads to a deaf audience Andy, MI, USASend us your viewsWriting in the journal Science, an international group of scientists concluded that temperatures and sea levels had been rising at or above the maximum rates proposed in the last report, which was published in 2001.The paper compared the 2001 projections on temperature and sea level change report with what has actually happened.The models had forecasted a temperature rise between about 0.15C-0.35C (0.27-0.63F) over this period. The actual rise of 0.33C (0.59F) was very close to the top of the IPCC's range.A more dramatic picture emerged from the sea level comparison. The actual average level, measured by tide gauges and satellites, had risen faster than the intergovernmental panel of scientists predicted it would.The IPCC's full climate science report will be released later in the year, as will other chapters looking at the probable impacts of climate change, options for adapting to those impacts, and possible routes to reducing emissions of greenhouse gases.Richard.Black-INTERNET@bbc.co.uk E-mail this to a friendPrintable versionVIDEO AND AUDIO NEWSThe IPCC chairman explains the report FROM ACTION NETWORKClimate changeContacts, information and advice to help you take actionCLIMATE CHANGEAnimated guide: Find out how the greenhouse effect works and more... LATEST SCIENCEPause in Arctic's melting trendFour degrees of warming 'likely'UK 'must plan' for warmer futureGLOBAL POLITICSUN climate talks split on treatyDownturn is 'climate opportunity'World powers accept warming limitEU/UK POLITICSPledge to reduce greenhouse gasesLow carbon way 'to reshape lives'IPCC ASSESSMENTHuman climate impact definedBillions face climate change riskMapping climate changeFEATURES AND ANALYSISUS bill 'crucial' for climate talks Cash for developing world Surviving Kyoto's 'do or die' summit BACKGROUNDA brief history of climate changeState of the planet, in graphicsThe evidenceFROM ACROSS THE BBCRichard Black's Earth WatchThe Green RoomSEE ALSOClimate change: Time to get serious 02 Feb 07 | Science/NatureClimate change: In graphics 02 Feb 07 | Science/NatureRELATED INTERNET LINKSIPCCThe BBC is not responsible for the content of external internet sitesTOP SCIENCE & ENVIRONMENT STORIESNight-sky image is biggest ever Phantom Eye 'spy plane' unveiled Higgs discovery rumour is denied | News feedsMOST POPULAR STORIES NOWMOST SHAREDMOST READVaroufakis 'taped Greece debt talks'The mother who 'outed' her daughter's Facebook lieIS 'in control' of Syria's PalmyraClarkson says BBC exit 'left a hole'Why Germany is David Cameron's new best friendBronze Age Danish girl 'German-born'LHC smashes collision energy recordBriton guilty of Iraq bomb murderPresident plays football amid protestsIn quotes: Irish same-sex marriage debateMost popular now, in detail
переводится, пожалуйста, подождите..
